Mar 8th, 2006, 21:00
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只看该作者 #21 |
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**************************** FALCON OIL & GAS SUMMARY # 4 **************************** From Streetinvesting.com Falcon’s expertise includes some of the world’s top oil and gas experts with several decades of highly successful unconventional and conventional natural gas drilling, development and production in North America. They are the first North American company to bring unconventional drilling and extraction technologies (developed in the tight gas sands of the U.S. Rocky Mountain region) to Europe. Falcon’s core global operations are focused in countries characterized by stable political leadership, a healthy, growing economy, a high regional demand for energy and an existing pipeline infrastructure that permits rapid delivery of oil and gas to market - a huge advantage over many other oil and gas companies. With the demand of oil and gas, Falcon’s progress could lead to another steady climb in share value. Their announcement last month about the results of their property in Romania is just another stepping-stone for their success. It’s a bull market out there and energy resource companies are the reason why. Not many people know this, but Romania has considerable oil and gas reserves and also a large scale and highly developed refining industry. Romania extracts around 6 million tonnes of oil annually and its production is about to receive a major… boost through the excavation of a recently discovered large-size oil deposit in the Black Sea that started in 1999. Overshadowed by the recent demand in Alberta’s oil sands, Falcon’s properties have potential that most Canadian investors can’t appreciate or foresee. Its understandable why the focus has been on the Alberta Oils Sands Cit has the largest reserves in the world, next to Saudi Arabia. However, the elaborate pipeline and distribution system in Romania is very advanced and millions of dollars is currently being invested in these large-scale operations. Falcon also seems to have an edge when it comes to finding financing. They have successfully raised over $40 million in 2004 and “will carry that through 2005 and well into 2006.” What does this mean for Falcon? Well, with so many established junior companies being eclipsed by the larger companies, Falcon’s financial resource will make sure that they here to stay. With their last operational update and drill results a month behind, Streetinvesting.com will definitely be watching this company in both the short and long-term as we feel that its upside potential could grow even stronger. Editor-in-Chief, Streetinvesting.com ___________________________________________________________________________ ROB-TV COMMENTS PERTAINING TO FALCON OIL & GAS Bill Harris, Partner & Portfolio Manager of Avenue Investment Management, featured Falcon on ROBtv as one of his picks. The below link will allow you to see this featured clip: http://www.robtv.com/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.20050810.00031000-00031553-clip2/h/220asf/// ___________________________________________________________________________ MARKET CALL WITH JOSEF SCHACHTER BROADCAST Verbatim [as close as I can] October 7th 8:00pm Caller: Thank you for taking my call. Mr. Schachter, I am calling concerning Falcon Oil & Gas on the Venture Exchange. It had a nice little bounce today and I am holding it. And, can you give me some background and, if you hold it. Thank you very much. Josef Schachter: Ok Rose, I just met with management today so your timing was perfect. They were in Calgary. The stock was up 12 cents today to 65 cents. A dollar has been the 52 week high. This is a story where the company has a very good skill set on the team in the United States with something that we now call Tight Gas. Which is gas that has to be, it`s in a tight formation and needs fracking to allow it to be released and to produce. We know about Encana being such a big player in that business in North America. This management team is now taking the play to Hungary and they found a very large resource, ah, a very large play there that their starting to drill in I think November. They got two rigs coming in to drill two wells. They should be down to a depth at the end of the year where they will know if there`s gas kicks in, if its successful. The management has a significant ownership in the story. The stocks gone from 30 cents just about a month ago. So my recommendation would be that you may want to wait for a cool off to be a buyer. If you own it already, I would be patient with it. The size of the prize is very material. There could be 4 TCF of gas which could imply a multi-dollar value. But again, this is high risk, but they do have a portfolio approach both in Hungary and in Romania for CBM which is coal bed methane. So again, it`s a business risk oriented investment. We are going to do more homework on it. We do not cover it officially but we met with management today and it does look like an intriguing story. Howard Green: Do you have a position in it? Josef Schachter: No we do not, no. We just met them today and we want to do our homework first before we make that decision. NewsBlast Sign-Up StockHouse NewsBlast: Receive company sponsored news and information via email. |
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Mar 8th, 2006, 21:01
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只看该作者 #22 |
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Falcon Oil and Gas Summary - # 5 Posted By: JR~EWING Canada’s Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. began drilling operations on its seven-well program in Hungary in November 2005. Falcon’s corporate offices are based in Denver, but it operates the deep gas project in Hungary through its wholly owned subsidiary Hungarian TXM Energy LLC, based in Budapest. The company has two exploration licenses covering 2,329 sq km (575,263 acres) in south central Hungary, near the border with Romania (Fig. 1). In January 2005, Falcon/TXM acquired the first license to explore and drill 955 sq km (235,885 acres) in the Tizsa area from Mako Energy Corp.1 The Tizsa license initially became effective June 11, 2001, was set to expire on Dec. 31, 2005. In June 2005, Falcon/TXM acquired a license over 1,374 sq km (339,378 acres) in the Makó area from Mako Energy. The Makó license was initially awarded Sept. 29, 1998, and was scheduled to expire on Dec. 31, 2005. On Dec. 12, Falcon announced that the Hungarian government extended both the Tisza and Makó exploration licenses through Dec. 31, 2007. Well permits are issued by the Mining Bureau in Budapest and signed by the Mining Captain in Szolnok. The play The Makó basin trends northwest and is flanked by the Algyo structural high on the west and the Battonya structure on the east.1 Allan D. Laird, director at Falcon and managing director of TXM, told OGJ that the company views the play as a basin-centered gas accumulation (BCGA), similar to the Jonah gas field and Pinedale anticline in Wyoming’s greater Green River area. Ben Law originated the BCGA concept in the 1980s while he worked for the US Geological Survey. This Hungarian basin has a geopressure gradient of more than 0.65 psi/ft, slightly less than that in the Green River basin. The rocks are also extremely hot, Laird said, in the range of high 300s-low 400° F. These are “expensive wells, in extreme conditions.” Falcon says that John Gustavson of Boulder, Colo.-based Gustavson Associates Inc. assigned a potential resource of 796 million bbl of oil and 17.5 tcf of gas to two key Miocene formations within the Makó Trough: Szolnok and Endrod. These are very thick sections of young (10 myo) sandy rocks, with permeabilities in the 0.1-1 md range. Wyoming’s Upper Cretaceous Jonah field, in comparison, has a permeability of only 0.01 md. Miocene is considered very young for a BCGA, the youngest known, according to Ben Law. Rigs, pipe In June 2005, Falcon/TXM signed two drilling contracts with Croatia’s Crosco Drilling & Well Services Co. Ltd. to drill three wells in Hungary and secured options to drill four additional wells with two different rigs. Crosco will drill two or three shallow wells in the Tisza license area with its 4,000 m (~13,000-ft capacity) Rig 403 and one to four deep wells in the Makó license area with its 8,000 m (~26,000 ft) Rig 801. Rig 403 was brought in from Croatia and Rig 801 was brought from Albania, where it had been working for Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OGJ, Dec. 19, 2005, p. 47). Falcon/TXM added a top drive to Rig 403. In the same month, Falcon signed a $10 million purchase order with Aberdeen-based broker, Apex Tubulars Ltd., for 182,000 ft of drill pipe, casing, and other materials, primarily from German and Russian mills. “These casing contracts are a key element of our drilling program,” said Laird, after signing the contracts, adding that premium casing is difficult to find right now. Hungarian drilling requires pipe and equipment suitable for the high- temperature, high-pressure conditions. Expected well conditions are based on two key offset wells: the Hod-1 well in the heart of the trough and the Makó-3 well in the south. The Makó basin discovery well was drilled in the 1960’s. Although there is limited gas composition data available from the Hungarian geological survey, Laird said that the company did not expect any H2S. There is a possibility of CO2, however, which raises the possibility of corrosion. Geophysics Falcon/TXM has an aggressive 3D program, Laird said, primarily vibroseis. The company uses Budapest based GES for acquisition and some processing. GES was formerly a part of the national oil company, Magyar Olaj-Es Gazipari (MOL), privatized in the 1990s. The company bought and reprocessed another 3D seismic dataset from MOL in early 2005, covering the north edge of the Tisza area. Falcon uses Gustavson Associates for some of its geophysical processing. Falcon/TXM also ran three seismic surveys in 2005: • A 63 sq km, 7 x 9 km survey around Makó in spring. • A 16 sq km survey in summer, over wetlands in the Tisza area. • A 95 sq km survey, the largest to date, in the Mako area in the fall. In February 2006, the company will begin the fourth seismic survey, in the Makó area. Based on the seismic data, the company initially selected the Makó 5 well location and the Pusztaszer and Szekkutas locations (Fig. 1). Operations Falcon/TXM set conductor in both license areas in late October 2005. Crosco used Rig 403 to spud the Pusztaszer-1 (P-1) well (Fig. 2) and Rig 801 to spud the Makó-6 well. Falcon upgraded its previously announced drilling locations based on new data from summer seismic programs. The P-1 well is an Sshaped, directional well, planned to avoid a nearby national park and wetlands, and drilled with downhole motors. In January, Falcon’s President and CEO Marc A. Bruner said “both rigs are making good progress...and the operations team has proceeded to construct the next surface location at Szekkutas-1.” Halliburton is on location to provide drilling and project management. Schlumberger is providing cementing and logging services. Laird told OGJ that the company would move Rig 403 to the Szekkutas well location from the P-1 well site in late January or February. This rig is limited to drilling the shallower locations on the basin margin, and the Szekkutas location is on the eastern edge. The Makó-6 is a nearly vertical well, planned to test a four-way closure. It will take about 4 months to drill, and the rig will be ready to move in March 2006 to another Makó location (4, 5, or 7). More than 10,000 wells have been drilled in Hungary, with major discoveries in the 1950s-70s. Falcon/TXM’s activities could spur more. The company says it is learning a lot from recent drilling and expects significant breakthroughs and higher penetration rates than seen in the past, thanks to the updated drilling equipment. References 1. Lencioni, L.C., Resource Evaluation Report on the Makó Trough Property, Hungary (N151-101), Mar. 15, 2005. |
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Mar 8th, 2006, 21:02
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只看该作者 #23 |
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Senior Member
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PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT POST ON FALCON * Posted By: JR~EWING ALL MATERIAL IS IN THE OPINION OF THE AUTHOR ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ Posted by Jastulo **************************** Hungarian Well Drilling Program **************************** ・ FO has two wells drilling: The Pusztaszer-1 well and the Mako-6 well. ・ The Mako-6 well is targeting the primary and deepest part (i.e., the “sweet spot”) of the Mako Trough and is being drilled to target depth of 6,000 m. ・ The Pusztaszer-1 well is 45 km away from the Mako-6 and was to test the outer extension of the zone and much shallower part of the Mako Trough. No gas, or uneconomic concentrations of gas, would have been surprising and would not have been indicative of the prospects for the Mako-6 well. ______________________________________________________________________________ ********************** Pusztaser-1 A Surprising Barn Burner !!!!! ********************** ・ The well has reached a measured depth of 3,659 m. ・ Formation tops for three key horizons have been penetrated: Algyo, Szolnok and Endrod. ・ The Endrod was penetrated at approximately 3,035 m. Significant gas shows of up through C5 (methane, ethane, butane, pentane, propane) have been encountered at several intervals within the Endrod formation IN SPITE of drilling the interval with an overbalanced mud weight. ・ FO’s geologists believes that the gas shows may be associated with a transition pressure zone where pressure values are increasing from a normally pressure regime into an overpressured zone. Basin Centered Gas Accumulations (BCGA) are typically found in abnormally pressured systems. The Key Excitement Was Gas Kicks (Further Discussion On “…overbalanced mud weight”) ・ The drill was using 10 lb. of mud pressure through to the Endrod formation, but once that formation was reached the gas pressures were so intense that it was becoming hard to contain. ・ Mud pressures were increased to 12 lb.; despite this gas kicks continue to break-through the mud. This is concrete evidence that gas is present and that it is highly overpressured. ・ Although this does not prove that the gas reservoir is economic (the well still needs to be test and fracked), it is an indicative sign that the reservoir likely contains a substantial amount of gas. Implications Of This Early Result: Again, the Pusztaszer-1 well is 45 km from the “main” target well (Mako-6), which is currently drilling (started about 3 weeks prior to the Pusztaszer-1 well). If the reservoir proves to be fully charged it will lend credence on the theory that the entire Mako Trough BCGA contains more than 100 tcf of gas in place. FO controls land containing about three-quarters of the entire Mako Trough. ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ Posted by Flowgo My take on this is that the sedar document is a submission for an upcoming PP if Falcon requires extra cash. If it were a reference to the Macquarie Bank Limited Credit Facility, why would there be references to MGI Securities, Knight Capital, Dundee, and the other agents participating? There is a reference in the document to a closing date of March *, 2006. Considering that Bruner and the executives of Falcon own a significant number of shares in the company, could we assume they are protecting everyone's interests including the common shareholders? One thing that is jumping out of the further DD being presented by posters & Falcon, is the fact that the wildcat being drilled at Pusztaszer-1 is over 45 km from the primary target. If this basin proves out to be this large, the rewards to Falcon Shareholders are going to be unfathomable. Could the Mako Trough become the largest gas play on Continental Europe? The clear guidance on drilling progress being provided from the company is outstanding up to this point. Let's dive into the potential reward from the Hungarian play: 1 TCG of Gas at $4.00US/mcf 1,000,000 (mmcf) = US $5,000 1,000,000,000 (bcf) = US $5,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 (tcf) = US $5,000,000,000 Subtract a 12% royalty to the Government of Hungary (US $600,000,000) also a 5% Overriding Royalty payable to Prospect Resources, Inc. (the original licensee) (US $300,000,000). Subtract one time fees of US $4,000,000 (Prospect) and US $3,000,000 (prospect) payable once the first three (3) wells have been completed. In Summary: US 5,000,000,000 (Five Billion) per 1 TCF of gas (gross) - US 600,000,000 (Six Hundred Million Total ORR/ 1 tcf) - US 300,000,000 (Three Hundred Million Total ORR/ 1 tcf) - US 4,000,000 (Four Million Total Payment) - US 3,000,000 (Three Million Total Payment) - US 100,000,000 (Facilities/Transport/Ops Total CAPEX/OPEX) Net US 3,993,000,000 per TCF. FO at Production Estimated Shares Oustanding 400,000,000 US $3,993,000,000 / 400,000,000 outstanding = US $9.9825/share/1 tcf $9.98 X 5.00 TCF probable = US $ 49.90/share $9.98 X 17.50 TCF potential = US $174.65/share From Falcon's Website: HUNGARY: We have two licenses in south central Hungary that allow us to drill and develop oil and natural gas within an underground geologic formation called the Mako Trough. The consulting firm of Gustavson Associates, has assigned a potential resource of 796 million barrels of oil and 17.5 trillion cubic feet of gas to two key formations within the Mako Trough. We have signed drilling contracts to initiate a seven-well program on our Hungary properties beginning in the fall of 2005. Add in the Romanian CBM potential and minor Canadian Properties and what is the ceiling for the S/P? I feel pretty darn satisfied that I purchased more shares at $1.48, and will be adding on any pullbacks. I thought SE was a great play. FO is extremely attractive, and the past accomplishments of FO management have the financial world dancing! Keep up the excellent vision FO, and prove up those reserves for the world to see. Who wants to be a multi millionaire? Buy FO. FO Flow DISCLAIMER POSTED SHORTLY AFTER BY FLOWGO: [I wish to clarify that my original **rough** potential asset valuation calculations were done in a very informal, ballpark format.] ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ Additional calculations to be considered into potential shareprice estimate Posted by TheKnight The calculations in due course will be a little more complicated..Inter alia variables to factor in will be operating costs(they could be very expensive),recovery rates and time horizons for the new fields...and a suitable discount rate for the projects(fortunately Hungary is already in the EEC and Roumania will soon be)...Tax and royalties will also need be factored in(but the Hungarians could well raise their tax/royalty rates when they appreciate what this discovery could well meanto them -you only have to look at the Brits and North Sea oil tax last year!)..aswell as reasonable assumptions re long term sustainable gas and oil prices....We hate to be party poopers on this Board but we it is not helpful either you all getting much too carried away...Even so we do not disagree with the view that if the news continues to be good over the next couple of months or so,these shares ought still to be a "four/five bagger" ATLEAST from these levels |
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Mar 8th, 2006, 22:13
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只看该作者 #28 |
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Senior Member
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The Key Excitement Was Gas Kicks (Further Discussion On “…overbalanced mud weight”) ・ The drill was using 10 lb. of mud pressure through to the Endrod formation, but once that formation was reached the gas pressures were so intense that it was becoming hard to contain. ・ Mud pressures were increased to 12 lb.; despite this gas kicks continue to break-through the mud. This is concrete evidence that gas is present and that it is highly overpressured. ・ Although this does not prove that the gas reservoir is economic (the well still needs to be test and fracked), it is an indicative sign that the reservoir likely contains a substantial amount of gas. Implications Of This Early Result: Again, the Pusztaszer-1 well is 45 km from the “main” target well (Mako-6), which is currently drilling (started about 3 weeks prior to the Pusztaszer-1 well). If the reservoir proves to be fully charged it will lend credence on the theory that the entire Mako Trough BCGA contains more than 100 tcf of gas in place. |
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Mar 10th, 2006, 19:48
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只看该作者 #34 |
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Senior Member
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FALCON OIL & GAS (T-FO) $1.64 +0.14 There are some moments in your investing/speculating career that stay with you for forever. For us, it was almost eight years ago that we joined a bus load of brokers, analysts and oil and gas guys to tour the acreage that Marc Bruner and crew had put together for what was then the infant Ultra Petroleum. We must have traveled for an hour on that bus and we were still on Ultra’s land holdings. It was huge! You just had the feeling that if this concept worked, it could be enormous. It has worked out, to a greater degree than anyone would have suspected at the time. But not all of those there from day one have benefited. The crew of Bruner and Allan Laird (the engineer who helped pioneer some of the new technologies for fracing and developing the deep wells at the time) weren’t around to enjoy the good times. While they were masters at putting a huge land position together with a new concept in gas plays (basin-centered gas plays are now pretty much accepted in the oil and gas business) but at the time, Bruner’s interpretation and meetings with Ben Law, were considered ahead of their times. While they might have been masters of finding the new theories on gas and putting together enormous land packages, one would have had to have said they were, shall we say, “management challenged”. The new technology at the time involved big bucks and suddenly there was a bigger staff than was needed and lots of money being spent. You get the drift. It was sad to see, but established management led by Mike Watford was brought in and they cut staff, vended off some interest in some of their plays and basically saved the company. Since then it has been one of the success stories that could have changed a persons lifestyle. A dollar invested back then is worth roughly $130 today. That’s why one plays the game of trying to find the next one. Low and behold―who is at it again, but the “Dynamic Duo” of Bruner and Laird. This time the place is Hungary and the play is called The Mako Trough. Once again, we are looking at basin-centered gas as the theory that two wells currently being drilled will prove to be so...or not. Along for ride is the aforementioned Ben Law, the fellow with the U.S. Geological Service who first coined the concept of basin-centered gas and has become, over the last few decades, the recognized expert on this kind of play. He is their consultant. For some background on this play, one has to realize that what Europe has experienced this winter, is totally different from North America. While we have had one of the warmest winters ever, Europe had one of the coldest and suddenly the European countries have discovered that Russia can’t supply all their needs. A new and huge discovery in Hungary at a time of very high gas prices would be welcome by the Continent. And of course, if it is a basin-centered gas play, it could be huge. Make that enormous. For those who want to understand more deeply what a BCG play is, email Sandra at sandra_wicks@canaccord.com and she will send you what Jim Letourneau calls one of the definitive looks at this type of play, written by Ben Law. We warn you that there is lots of technical words involved that you might find hard to get through, but the gist of these kinds of plays is a gas play under big pressure, usually deep, that has a big benefit―no water. They tend to be huge―if one well of this type comes in, you would expect hundreds if not thousands of additional wells to come on as well. We spend some time again with Jim Letourneau of the Big Picture Speculator and award-winning hydro-geophysicist. We ask him today, if he would call this the “Play of the Year” in the oil and gas business. He talks for awhile about the big plays out there world-wide that he is aware of, and suggests that Encana has a very significant BCG play in the Columbia River Basin. But as far as he’s concerned, Falcon Oil and Gas, has the “Play of the Year” and he is a believer! He tells us it’s currently his biggest holding. “The size of the prize is just huge―it’s enormous” he says. They have the huge land position to build on should this ever work out. How huge? Well, there’s some absolutely enormous numbers being used on this play and let’s be blunt. One TCF is an absolutely enormous amount of gas. Most people these days are lucky to find 100 BCF, but Letourneau says he wouldn’t be surprised if this play could come up with 10 TCF to 100 TCF’s of gas. Once again, that’s out of this world! Everything about this play has numbers you wouldn’t normally relate to. Especially the land holdings―570,000 acres of land with 100% working interest, Laird tells us. In other words, 900 sections or 25 townships! Allan Laird tells us that on their deep well, they aren’t looking for the usual intercepts you find in the oil and gas business of 5, 10 or 15 meters, he’s suggesting that there’s the possibility you could find a full kilometer of intercepts on this hole. Some others suggest it might even be bigger than that. And of course, that’s the good news for those who love fairytales. Part of the bad news is that maybe their management skills (or lack of them) are once again, dodging this story. For a company that has absolutely no cash flow or revenue to show for itself at this stage, with the current financing they are working on, they now have almost 400 million shares outstanding. That’s simply embarrassing. One has to worry that while these people who can find incredible plays and may have done that again, the concern is that it could somehow be mismanaged. Is there a strong enough board to make sure that should a good story be veering off course, to bring in a Watford or someone else to get things back on track? The market valuation approaching three quarters of a billion dollars, this stock is more than priced for perfection, and simply has to come up with some huge results on these first two wells. Mind you, should they come in, Letourneau adds that after a while, this would simply become a mining operation, because once they found the fairway, it’s just simply trying to drill 50 to 100 wells a year for a long, long time. So hear we go folks, we’ll call it the “Play of the Year” for the oil and gas business over the next weeks, awaiting for results of the wells, but as we’ve explained, this is for rampant speculators only or for those that are pretty confident that this is a BCG play |
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