Trading

[hazelton]

13:32, 刚刚突破 133.70 应该是个信号，但是要看 后续。。。

[hazelton]

作者: hazelton

13:32, 刚刚突破 133.70 应该是个信号，但是要看 后续。。。

上引线太长，不太好看。。。 看后续。。。

[hazelton]

作者: hazelton

1:19 刚刚在 13:10 顶部向上一分 133.64 处 棒动的速度和幅度应该是关键信息来的。。。。。 不过我还没能好好 解读的能力，总之不够快。。。

刚才突破那点时，不是那种跳动，现在回过头来，我的解释 是，没多少人将 stop 放在 133.64 也就是说在 向下突破 133.52 (13:05) 时，卖的人不多，

没人卖了，那会出现什么? ---> 到目前的表现。 ( 13:48)

[hazelton]

下穿 133.83 ,5-m 信号 ( now 1:55) L1, 最好等第二次 L2.

[hazelton]

3-m 3棒齐平头， 下破小趋势线。 5-m 两齐平， 可能小趋势的最后一冲。。

[hazelton]

14:05 的那棒很漂亮，现在 市场动的速度有点快起来了。。。

[hazelton]

2:08, 3-m 现在还不掉下来，应该有效突破从 134.6 下来的趋势线。

[hazelton]

作者: 老杨

Trendline就是压力线支撑线理论的一部分。uptrend的时候trendline是支撑线，downtrend的时候trendline是压力线，channel line是trendline的辅助线。

我只用他书中的名字，没太多想 支撑和阻力，只看 Bar 形态前后关系。

[hazelton]

再看 书的序言, 抄一段:
" The goal for most traders is to maximize trading profits through a style
that is compatible with their personalities. Without that compatibility, I
believe that it is virtually impossible to trade profitably long term. Many
traders wonder how long it will take them to be successful and are willing
to lose money for some period of time, even a few years. However, it
took me over 10 years to be able to trade successfully.
"

"Edwards and Magee's focus is on
the overall trend. I use those same basic techniques but pay much closer
attention to the individual bars on the chart to improve the risk-reward
ratio, and I devote considerable attention to intraday charts."

"As a trader, I see everything in shades of gray and am constantly thinking
in terms of probabilities,"

"This is the art of trading, and it takes years to become good at trading
in the gray zone."

"You have to take responsibility for your decisions, but you
first have to learn how to make them, and that means that you have to get
used to operating in the gray fog. Nothing is ever as clear as black and
white, and I have been doing this long enough to appreciate that anything,
no matter how unlikely, can and will happen."

[hazelton]

刚才 Long@ 133.84 的该 stop 出来了。。。看是真动作，还是假动作。。。

[hazelton]

14:05 这根 5-m 绿棒 假动作做得真有水平。( 谁知道呢，说不定目前在一个更大的假动作里面， ， 不过就 5-m 来说无所谓了。。。 )

[hazelton]

市场的一切走法都是对的，
不用理由去支持，也不用去找，
保持头脑清醒，不带任何 趋势的偏见，潜心 观察，分析每根 Bar
控制好 止损， 充分考虑到，万一停电了也没关系的 极端情况。。。。。

无惧 ， 无贪， 无熊， 无牛， 无固定的招式。。。。。。

“每一招都以弧形刺出，以弧形收回，心中竟无半点渣滞，以意运剑，。。。。 ”

[hazelton]

抄:另一本书的, 共学习。。。

( about trading Futures)
--------------------------------
Approach first,method second.
--------------------------------

A trader needs to be like a researcher in an unexplored forest studying a newly discovered wild animal. Eager to learn,searching for the truth, curious as to what will happen next,intent on observing habits and patterns,looking without preconceived opinions or fear.

The primary motive is to observe,learn,and then act intelligently.

No fear because the trader has made the effort to possess the trading intelligence and decision-making capacity necessary to handle whatever the future brings.

--------------------------------
The past is knowable.
The present is observable.
The future is intelligently guessable.

The past is already made,so it is permanent.Only something permanent,unchanging,can ever be known.Therefore,the past can be known.

The present is evolving; it is happening.That which is happening can be seen.So the present can be observed.

The mold of the future is built in the past and refined by the present.However,the actual future is yet-to-be-made and thus will always be unknown.

Only the present is alive and to be alive means to be constantly changing.
If the present is alive and constantly changing,then the present's future must also be ever-changing and thus always unknown.

So,the future can never be known nor perfectly predicted;but the know past and observed present will always indicate a "probable" future.
The future is thus in between unknowable and predictable.
It is more than random,but less than certain.
Tis is intelligently guessable.
--------------------------------
So,how do you make these intelligent guesses about the future?
One approach to solving this problem is to follow these four steps:

First,understanding.
Second,self-nowing.
Third,learning.
Fourth,acting.

--------------------------------

You are trading against the wealthiest and most knowledgeable people and organizations in the world.

Do not delude yourself,you cannot compete on their terms:
information,knoledge,experience,staying power and so on.

--------------------------------

Do not spend time and energy tring to figure out -why- a price moves.
Focus all your attention and energy solely on -what- the price is doing.

If you know something,assume everybody knows it.
Always operate on the assumption that you are at the tail end of the information chain.

--------------------------------

Don't think. Look.
Don't analyze. Observe.

(The institutions you are competing with invariable will have more knowledge,more
information,more of everything than you; but in the seeing competition you can be their equal,or maybe even their better.)

--------------------------------

Avoid making specific predictions about the future.
Making predictions will do you no good and can do you a lot of harm.
Analysis and predictions actually hinder your ability to see and act clearly.

You will be constantly tempted to analyze and predict.
Do so if you wish,just be aware of the dangers and try to adjust accordingly.

--------------------------------
Observe with humility.
Act with arrogance.

When observing,step aside and let humility in.
When acting,banish even the concept of doubt.

When looking at a chart,look with maximum humility.
When acting on what you see,act with total arrogance.

See through your eyes.
Act from your intellect.

(Eyes see,intellect does.Your eyes are the navigator,your intellect the pilot.Your eyes tell you -what-,-which way- and -approximately when- to trade; your intellect decides -how many- contracts to do and -precisely when- to act)

(Understand that the psychological you,the you made up of all your past successes and failures,the you full of hopes for future success and fears of future failures,the you filled with all this extraneous psychological clutter,this you has no role to play in the seeing and acting of trading---this you merely enjoys or suffers the fruits of your trading.

Let images enter through your eyes,detour around your emotions and memories and impact directly on your trading intelligence so it can then act freely and clearly. Let your eyes send uncontaminated sights to your trading intelligence so it can then act as you have conditioned and trained it to do. )

--------------------------------

To trade futures is to live in a state of constant uncertainty.
Surviving and prospering in this evniroment requires clear vision,the guidance of a trading intelligence containing,at a minimum,and accurate knowledge of the past,and then the capacity to act decisively.

Futures trading is always uncertain and therefore sometimes frightening.
In such an evnironment,you need to understand what you are dealing with,you need an unbiased humble brain,and you need to be able to act.

Fear distorts vision.
Intelligentce displaces fear.

--------------------------------

Trading futures is like a voyage down an unexplored river.

You cannot know what lies ahead but you can know where the river has been,you can see which direction it is moving,you can measure how fast it is flowing.Then having done this,you can make an intelligent guess about where it will go next.

You cannot know the future,but you can know the past,and you can calculate the direction and momentum of the present.

Do all of this well and you will be able to make in intelligent guess about the future.

--------------------------------
<<Intelligent Futures Trading>>---Chick Goslin 1997 -- ISBN 0-930233-63-8

[hazelton]

作者: fenying

LZ除了说图表外，能不能也说说level2的体会？

不会

也不相信。
另: SPY level 2 有用吗?

[hazelton]

20110517

今天没什么大起伏，
早上手又痒了，不过没犯大错误，
10:30 那齐头的很漂亮，可以算 EMA Gap, 后果很严重，不过当时没充分认识到，(3-m 是 3 齐头) 10:55 那假动作漂亮， 不过最漂亮的假动作算 14:40 , 绝了，然后就觉得走法是 滚滚江水，后浪推前浪，。。。。 15:00 后的那个大 range scalp 了几次，不过还是动作慢了点。。。 12:45 那根大棒吃饭去了。

另:

高手比武，看到对手的招数是一层功力，
能看到对手的破绽是进一层功力。
如果在对手的破绽还没出来，超前想到一两步又是更高的一层功力。。。。

[hazelton]

作者: siminzxu

这水平已经超一溜了，马上超过糖大虾了。你轻松日进0.9999999999%？

我 daytrading 2周 + 1 天，第一个目标 不亏钱 还没达到, 挖苦不是这样挖的啊

给点 指导意见先？

[hazelton]

记得刚开始学开 高速的时候，旁边有大货车开过，能感觉到自己小车的微微抖，
现在开高速很平常了，反而感觉不到了，才发现新手时把注意力放在不重要的细节上了。



去伪存真，透过表象去看本质，表象往往是具有迷惑性。
真真假假，假假真真。。。。

树叶没动，心动。。。。 Bar 没跳，心在跳。。。

[hazelton]

心无杂念，心无牛熊，
不要画线，画着画着，自己越画越相信，
不要读 Bar, 读着读着，自己越来越相信，

表象是假的多，
无贪，无惧，设好止损，。。。。

[hazelton]

两道防线？ 重要的防线前面有另一线?

[hazelton]

今天结果，还是连续犯错误。。。



早上原来定好头 15 分钟不做，还是忍不住。
10:45 后的两次是发现是在 Barb Wire 区，马上出来了。
10:05 的做对了是 luck, 因为也在 Trading Range 中。
12:05 的是在 Barb Wire 区，假动作是很多的，自己先把目光放到了前一bar( 12:00) 以为那个是假动作，没想到 12:05 的才是，后来 马上在 12:15 翻多，
12:15 也是进了后发现是 Trading Range 的上半部， 还好 12:25 的 Follow Through 还可以。
今天做对的是 14:15 的 short, 一直等经济消息的出来，市场的发疯向上，出现两个 齐平的 5-m Bar 后 L2 进的，很冷静，一点不急躁，有进步，在 14:25 close 是基于过会再接回来的打算，------ 这步开始就不对了，心态不对，有点燥，
14:35 出现信号而且是 outside bar, 直接打下， 太相信下降的力量，所以在后面 14:40 和 15:00 都无视力量，一直等到 133.25 失守才震出， ----- 不应该的。

后面心态就有点不太好了。

对 15:30 Al Brooks 的评论是:
"73 bear RB(reverse bar), top of 68 channel, but bull MC(micro channel) and better to not S 1st BO(break out). Risky to B L of bar since near top of TR(trading range)
74 f BO B but top of TR so better to wait"
( 73, 74 是从开盘来的每 5-m bar 的第 73, 74 根)
------- 刚过了一遍 他对市场的评论，发现这两天功力有张进，大受鼓舞，明天继续。
------- 另: 14:05 的那个顶，在 ES emini 上显示不一样，要高一 tick, 和 15:45/ 15:50 两 bar 齐高，对明天的操作有意义。。 )