奥破神学习贴

[chinasmile1]

DHUANG:

To mummy, I read one of your post to ask me post how I get OUT my trades then you would konw how I got IN the trades in the first place..., I think that's a bit of too much to ask and also tough to do that.....simply because it is never my intention to prove anything to anybody or even to myself..... As for how I plan my trades, I think I have explained quite clear in WanBei when started my Mar SPX put position two to three month ago, actually listed first several positions and even the number of contracts..., later I explained my following up plan..., so should have been very clear on how I enter into this trade...... I am very flexible at coming up a trading plan, but very rigid at executing it since the plan has covered 99% of scenarios..... if I have time or convenient for me, I will try to post some of my trades if I trade at all, but again, I mentioned many times before, here/WanBei/Huaren, that what's most important is to understand what's behind the trade, why take the trade....

anyway, here I recommend a book for those who are interestd in the option, David Caplan "The New Options Advantage"...finished this book in a couple of days..., good book if you want treat option as an "edge" rather than "gamble", read it. ... Most of the examples are about futures option, but that don't matter, the concepts apply to the equities too......, I appreciate many concepts he presented in the book...... The book may be hard for someone new to the option, but it worth chewing on it........, it will get you to have the correct concepts in option play at very begining rather than after you have lost tons of cash on option gambling.....

[chinasmile1]

DHUANG:

作者: ;1590342

Mummy, two basics of my option trading (for trend trading): 1. Long six month or more contracts, normally i initiate them as a vertical spread to mitigate vega risk; this will be my core positions and directional bets; 2. in the MEANTIME, sell front month contracts to finance the purchase, this process may involve naked selling. The premise is option is a wasting assets, theta is much higher for these front month contracts.

The KEYs to me are: 1. before I take these kind of trading, I have a very detailed plan; can't stress more the importance of having a plan for my trading; in the plan I understand waht time frame I am trading, what actions to take in case I am wrong or right; 2. building positions step by step, not finish them up in a macho manner; this is what i mentioned before: don't look at trading as an EVENT instead look at as a PROCESS; 3. not overly bearish or bullish to begin with;

As for my MAR SPX trading, I suggest you read my posts at WanBei if you care at all. Absolutely, i was wrong (or say too early) when i initiate first MAR800/750 with front month selling (more than 2:1 ratio), and SPX kept going up, the short position financed partial of core positions. In the meantime, i have a plan to shift up strike to MAR850, and closed partial MAR750, when SPX had correction, i sold MAR800 more than i originally long and also front month contracts as wll, so at that time the core changed to MAR850/800/750, but my cost of position is lower than that of MAR800/MAR750..., SPX then charged up and corrected along the way, and i am doing the same things, so as of Dec, my core positions has changed to MAR900/850/800.....and because of "refinacing" with front month contracts, the position has become "free".....as for the profit of the current positions, all i can say is i am very happy with it.....and according to my plan I have to start taking profits...

It sounds complicated, that's exactly why I have a plan to begin with. However, following my basics it actually is not that complicated. Have to understand that markets goes up and down, that's exact opportunities to make the ajustment for the positions... I understand Matte has similar strategies....

Mummy, if it is possible, maybe it will be helpful to copy/paste those of my posts regarding my SPX trades at WanBei to here, so ppl can understand what I was talking about....

let me ask you a question, i remember you were bearish on the DJX early part of January, even have a plan to initate bearish play, but waited... (turtle and I were kiding with you on that)..., have you ever started position?? I know DJX presented chances twice for you initiate positions....don't have to answer it, my point is once you have a plan, don't doubt yourselve, go step by step with your plan... You maybe absolutely wrong in your market bias, but as long as you have a plan to deal with it, you will be limit your loss; or better yet, you maybe absolutely right, you will increase your profit as long as you have a plan to add on the positions...

I always think everyone has to find a trading strategy or style fitting their personal traits......

Anyway, mummy, I think you are doing great with your trades, for example, one of your trade on bullish SPX, even though market has proven you are wrong, your loss is zero because of the way your position are constructed...., that's most important....

I don't think there is holy grail in option trading, and don't believe any strategies can make consistent money for long time.... that's exactly why i am constently reading and learning to fit my strategy with current market....

************

[ttfn]

1. before I take these kind of trading, I have a very detailed plan; can't stress more the importance of having a plan for my trading; in the plan I understand waht time frame I am trading, what actions to take in case I am wrong or right; 2. building positions step by step, not finish them up in a macho manner; this is what i mentioned before: don't look at trading as an EVENT instead look at as a PROCESS; 3. not overly bearish or bullish to begin with

字字是金. 谈的是option, 对股票交易一样适用.

[chinasmile1]

dhuang 写到:
ok, here is my New Year contribution......

The list is my reading list for the reference:

For understanding why you trade and how you trade:
1. Jack D. Schwager, "Market Wizards" and "The New Market Wizards"
2. Edwin Lefèvre, "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator"

i have read this three books many many times over in the past nine years, every time i learn new things out of them..., just amazing....

For pure technical analysis:
1. Martin Pring "Technical Analysis Explained"
or
2. John Murphy "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets"

i have read both, but i think if you spend hard time on one, it should get you start on TA.

For fundamental analysis:
none, because I believe those who knows fundamental (i mean those really have inside information) make the chart, and my approach is to find the hint from them...

For EW and GANN:
i believe in EW and GANN methods, but for starter, don't read too much on these as yet.....

For option:
Sheldon Natenberg, "Option Volatility & Pricing"
first book I started in option, and read many many times, my bible in option trading...
or
Larry McMillan "Options as a Strategic Investment"
dull book, but will get you solidly started in option...

For big picture:
need to know economics, read any book on econ101. and from there, I've read every books from Austrian School. "The Theory of Money and Credit" by Ludwig von Mises was what I got started eight years ago...., and after deep understanding of their theory, with the help from my trading mentor, I fully recognized the dire consequence of malinvestment and misallocation of assets during the later 90's in 1999.....and now witnessing....., which will keep going on......, for those interested, go to www.mises.org, wealth of free information, actually i believe most of publications from Mises are free there......

Trading is a tough professional just like any real jobs you are taking on right now, it requires lots of hard work and learning to CONSISTENTLY profit from the market...., those are just the books will get started, but I have read many many others books on trading, gambling, etc... having said, however, i think you need find several really good books that you enjoy reading, and read them over and over to learn things....

Last:
come to here, see what those traders say, there are many good traders here, like matte, turtle, mummy, etc..., even for CHTR's post, just for visual pleasure, it worth the trip to here, at least for me, i read every one of CHTR's post.....

作者: ttfn

字字是金. 谈的是option, 对股票交易一样适用.

[chinasmile1]

HK:


AAPL:
我开盘就抢，还是0.8-1.0 Fill 的
0.60 的好deal可能就是一闪电之间机会就没有了
For all AAPL or option holders:
Patience is the key, making new high is just the matter of time. maybe next trigger is the PR of crazy hot Holiday ipod shopping or worldwide marketing strategy news ( some rumor is Japan and Fast Asia strategy partnership PR on the way)
AAPL is the king of consumer electronics, longterm is good
That's the trend of hot money.
For short term I am also confident and relax,
I load another 2000 more calls today. AVG 200% return is expected within this OE cycle.
Any chance below 58-60 is a no brain buy ( although I am not interested in most stock trade , anywhere can be seen 10% ,20%gain/loss)

AAPL holder 是谁呢
PRIVATE CAPITAL 20,457,156
LORD ABBETT & C 18,867,670
JENNISON ASSOCI 14,230,691
BARCLAYS GLOBAL 13,736,725
FMR CORP 11,586,616
先看第一个，Private 从上个Q就开始加舱，从其它的holding看这个
funding 比较aggresive
第二个Lord 要注意，AAPL 占了2% 强，第二大持有，看来是相当有信心
最终要的是后面两两个，FMR and Barclays
这才是超级大碗 , boston 的FMR 是Peter Lynch 挂名的超级fund
6千亿的资本，和Barclays 差不多，都是非常凶猛的手法
如果没有基错,JefferPipper的分析师一直和FMR 保持想当的默契
好，让我们再来看看insider selling
除了11/3 有两笔，30k 和18k ,没有再大的
ok, 剩下的问题是，在当前AAPL FA 的情况下
FUND 庄家会为了61-55=6 快钱就pump and dump 嘛？
显然不会，aapl 是非常hot 的绩优股，除非有我们不知道insider fraud
更深层次可能是： MM 希望这个鼓动整个市场对high tech 的信心，
那么剩下会是什么, 这只是第一步，剩下的用屁股好好想想就知道了。

dave: 我倒不喜欢去读那些东东.Barclays做的几个股票就很猛,一个就是TASR,好象还有NVEC.
HUIKE: 股票的走势和fund掌舵人的风格有关
性格决定价钱。

so far Until EST 14:24
AAPL 三线call 全面上涨, although 远远没到位，but for one day
around 40% gain is not bad.
60call 40% GAIN
65call 41% GAIN
70call 38% GAIN

[chinasmile1]

HK:

Momo Option
只此一家 别无分店

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After some careful studies during the last few months, I feel strongly that HK's options play is one of the best effective ways in options trading in specific, and trading in general;

I incoporate what I can see and learn from HK into my own momentum options system, and refine my system which details in "Momentum Options Trading: The Top 10 Issues";

Some of the highlights include:
1. aiming for big momentums with 10 folds potential;
2. from penny stocks to penny options;
3. overnight gap plays;
4. catching the extreme: ndx reversal plays;
5. breakout plays;
......

This thread is meant for more discussion which we can all benefit from.


回克洗了睡 写道:
NND , 一群刻舟求剑的家伙 生化玩法又不是一个Pattern ，现在都有N种
1 ELN 模式的先出丑闻，得,down, 然后rebounce , 然后赶快自残保命 Suspended/withdraw 又大down , 然后更多的病例被发现.... abrx
2 MATK模式 revenue 原因的死而复活
3 DNA 模式的会议疯+OE 最后一周RUN , 或者OE 第一天RUN
4 OSIP 模式的幸灾乐祸，竞争对手除丑闻或被挤出市场，MKT exclusive 唯我独尊老大地位
5 CTIC AMLN 模式的沙漠有金矿传说，热情高涨，结果宣布 本来的金矿只是一块金砖...
6 PFE MRK 没事找事模式，要相信FDA还是青睐大药商的，
就算有点把case , 到最后vote 表决还是意思意思一下OK 的

细分还有10几种，自己琢磨，切忌切忌，对号入座，别动不动就No Brain...
高回报，必然高风险； 高风险，一大半不会高回报。
小风险，必然小回报； 小回报，大半还是高风险。
If_only_I_can_hold 写道:
I saw it was low 5 this morning too but dare not to rush in.
It may drift down more with coming downgrade and class action. This is not another MATK. It looks like ELN.

回克洗了睡 写道:
送你一句话： 看的时候要忍，动手的时候要无脑Blind的利落，做好ZERO的心理准备 很多时候不是没有机会，而是因为怕而miss掉了 Option 进的时候要贪婪， 出的时候要恐惧。
小五 写道:
FatCash 写道:
每月只做一次，一次就全输光的可能性更大些.
我是做短线，最多3天哪种，而且我割肉的技术比较好，下得了刀子！呵呵

回克洗了睡 写道:
amln No much profit left , its a known deal.since everybody knows it.
Check the ask of 25 call , even double is good , 定时定点练不出神枪手。

回克洗了睡 写道:
MM's year is called Golden yr, cant repeat it in short term. I would say Billionare maybe possible through option chasing. alexy 写道: 所以当年mummy发家虽然就这一招，已经是option play的精髓了：牛市赌ER。

作者: chinasmile1

HK:


AAPL:
我开盘就抢，还是0.8-1.0 Fill 的
0.60 的好deal可能就是一闪电之间机会就没有了
For all AAPL or option holde...

[chinasmile1]

HK:

Growth Option
独门绝技

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Candidates for swing trade or Option trend play

Like: LOGI ATVI KLAC AVCT RSTI CTSH ISSX
DAKT seems bottem there.

Standard here
1. High Tech high growth rate
2 Stay well within the upbound channal
3 Pullback to 25,50 SMA is the entry point.

排名 公司名称 收入增长 利润增长 现金流增长
1 Logitech Intl. 27.2% 81.5% 835.1%
2 California Amplifier 39.1% 75.9% 551.5%
3 eBay 95.8% 188.5% 100.3%
4 Activision 21.3% 33.4% 522.7%
5 MedImmune 39.1% 44.2% 105.5%
6 Rambus 44.8% 66.2% 174.1%
7 Avocent 53.0% 41.7% 251.2%
8 White Electronic Designs 15.7% 9.7% 1,282.4%
9 KLA-Tencor 30.2% 97.0% 82.6%
10 Rofin-Sinar Technologies 25.8% 6.6% 655.0%
11 Manhattan Associates 34.4% 70.5% 79.2%
12 Concord EFS 41.1% 40.1% 94.3%
13 Nvidia 103.8% 189.3% 218.3%
14 Bio-Rad Laboratories 23.5% 29.0% 48.7%
15 Cree 49.1% 53.7% 93.6%
16 Cognizant Technology Solutions 41.3% 40.4% 31.5%
17 Internet Security Systems 52.4% 23.3% 82.9%
18 Daktronics 20.1% 8.0% 128.9%
19 Newport 32.5% 26.4% 99.5%
20 QLogic 45.6% 18.9% 43.2%

Source: http://www.business2.com/b2/ “Business 2.0 100：The Fastest-Growing Tech Companies”
下文所提到的年增长率是指在过去的三年中的每年平均增长率 sina.com编译 http://www.blogchina.com 转载
Full list:
排名 公司名称 收入增长 利润增长 现金流增长
1 Logitech Intl. 27.2% 81.5% 835.1%
2 California Amplifier 39.1% 75.9% 551.5%
3 eBay 95.8% 188.5% 100.3%
4 Activision 21.3% 33.4% 522.7%
5 MedImmune 39.1% 44.2% 105.5%
6 Rambus 44.8% 66.2% 174.1%
7 Avocent 53.0% 41.7% 251.2%
8 White Electronic Designs 15.7% 9.7% 1,282.4%
9 KLA-Tencor 30.2% 97.0% 82.6%
10 Rofin-Sinar Technologies 25.8% 6.6% 655.0%
11 Manhattan Associates 34.4% 70.5% 79.2%
12 Concord EFS 41.1% 40.1% 94.3%
13 Nvidia 103.8% 189.3% 218.3%
14 Bio-Rad Laboratories 23.5% 29.0% 48.7%
15 Cree 49.1% 53.7% 93.6%
16 Cognizant Technology Solutions 41.3% 40.4% 31.5%
17 Internet Security Systems 52.4% 23.3% 82.9%
18 Daktronics 20.1% 8.0% 128.9%
19 Newport 32.5% 26.4% 99.5%
20 QLogic 45.6% 18.9% 43.2%
21 Cerner 21.2% 70.3% 53.9%
22 Siebel Systems 64.7% 75.3% 122.7%
23 AXT 30.0% 44.3% 364.5%
24 BISYS Group 22.5% 36.3% 47.5%
25 Tollgrade Communications 21.3% 49.8% 110.9%
26 Spectrum Control 6.5% 25.9% 137.1%
27 TriQuint Semiconductor 35.4% 72.8% 106.2%
28 Fiserv 16.9% 22.4% 57.7%
29 THQ 17.8% 14.7% 106.0%
30 Micromuse 70.1% 34.3% 112.1%
31 Actuate 71.0% 26.0% 170.2%
32 Scientific-Atlanta 20.7% 29.2% 136.8%
33 Maxim Integrated Products 29.3% 5.1% 62.6%
34 Benchmark Electronics 34.6% -15.3% 56.1%
35 Check Point Software Technologies 52.1% 62.9% 55.1%
36 Business Objects 33.6% 46.8% 32.2%
37 PeopleSoft 12.9% 52.1% 282.5%
38 Solectron 32.7% 26.4% 154.9%
39 Inter-Tel 11.7% 13.8% 49.9%
40 SunGard Data Systems 17.8% 37.2% 34.4%
41 Sanmina-SCI 81.6% 31.6% 86.7%
42 JDA Software Group 15.8% 106.0% 44.9%
43 CACI Intl. 16.4% 20.6% 29.4%
44 Mercury Computer Systems 21.1% 25.5% 69.3%
45 Forrester Research 33.0% 1.0% 52.8%
46 Planar Systems 19.2% 21.5% 67.6%
47 Macrovision 49.6% 27.6% 71.0%
48 Advent Software 31.6% 40.6% 50.3%
49 Open Text 25.0% -23.4% 105.7%
50 Renaissance Learning 29.0% 28.3% 60.1%
51 II-VI 29.6% 17.7% 26.1%
52 Aeroflex 16.8% -6.9% 103.8%
53 Symantec 19.0% -23.5% 51.0%
54 Zoran 34.1% 28.4% 33.3%
55 Jack Henry & Associates 33.8% 24.5% 40.0%
56 Plexus 32.8% -2.2% 121.2%
57 Qiagen 32.0% 35.3% 45.9%
58 ATMI 19.6% 20.9% 35.9%
59 Applied Materials 23.5% 67.1% 20.9%
60 Roper Industries 16.4% 14.2% 39.3%
61 Electronic Arts 9.8% -13.3% 91.3%
62 SPSS 13.6% 33.6% 37.5%
63 Analog Devices 22.5% 30.3% 40.5%
64 International Rectifier 15.4% 29.0% 45.8%
65 Keithley Instruments 6.1% 5.2% 99.1%
66 Woodhead Industries 6.1% 24.1% 35.5%
67 SpectraLink 19.3% 22.5% 60.4%
68 Black Box 34.7% 14.8% 31.7%
69 Verity 27.1% -14.7% 79.2%
70 AVX 14.8% 76.7% 30.2%
71 Paravant 31.4% -49.9% 31.9%
72 DST Systems 14.4% 43.1% 20.7%
73 Semtech 22.9% 25.7% 33.0%
74 RF Micro Devices 31.4% 4.1% 86.3%
75 Autodesk 8.8% 22.5% 42.7%
76 Chiron 7.8% -36.5% 254.2%
77 Mercury Interactive 44.3% 14.8% 16.6%
78 Merix -2.4% 56.8% 242.0%
79 Ciena 51.9% -22.4% 198.1%
80 Serena Software 27.5% 28.3% 22.7%
81 Affiliated Computer Services 20.0% 26.0% 1.4%
82 Applied Innovation 17.5% 19.0% 48.9%
83 Standard Microsystems 0.8% 15.2% 27.9%
84 Cadence Design Systems 6.1% 56.3% 40.4%
85 MedQuist 13.2% 20.9% 16.8%
86 Ansys 15.1% 8.3% 13.5%
87 iGate 2.9% -4.1% 46.0%
88 Rainbow Technologies 8.0% 0.1% 37.5%
89 Diodes 18.2% -32.0% 36.3%
90 Syntel 0.9% -4.9% 41.7%
91 ARRIS Group 6.7% -5.0% 2,262.1%
92 Linear Technology 11.1% 12.9% 41.3%
93 BEI Technologies 16.2% 65.0% 21.7%
94 Jabil Circuit 36.0% -5.9% 30.5%
95 FileNet 2.6% 77.4% 3.5%
96 Cisco Systems 27.3% -0.9% 20.0%
97 Cymer 16.8% 3.8% 11.7%
98 Nokia 19.7% 8.7% 28.7%
99 Anaren Microwave 24.1% 33.1% 20.6%
100 Amdocs 50.3% -8.7% 49.0%

作者: chinasmile1

Momo Option
只此一家 别无分店

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After some careful stud...

[chinasmile1]

HK:
Option Volume Related

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2. 最早是brief.com出的 option 消息 就买了45/50 几个， 买完都忘了， 放了3天，才发现都涨到了$24一个 Inside 是很牛的 ，而且黑，敢买, 我在琢磨BIIB 回你问题： 美国sec 管不了， 那个麻纱是只蠢鸟，她干么卖股票， 买put hedge, 没人说她不是. 大概70% 这类 big news, merge 之前option 都有近水楼台的哥们， 我可以随便给你举出大的case: 宝洁 570亿 买吉列: Option 提前爆了5万的量, 至少被人卷走了1千万刀 但是打我来了美国， 见证了OSIP 最后一天翻了30x , GOOG OE最后Thur翻了300x， 2005 Apr 指数翻了100x , May 反着来指数又是50x 天天都有机会，stay in this game 其实我认为华街没有真正的新闻, insiders, execs' friends/family, analysts... All ahead of the street. UOTQI 45puts 10,849 that's all! 5/16/2006 20.76 20.40 24.50 19.00 24.40 3,039 <,--News out day, which delayed for 1 day! 5/15/2006 54.63 1.10 1.10 0.70 0.70 873 <,--There is nothing on calls, but puts. look at the volume. 5/12/2006 52.74 1.05 1.30 0.90 1.10 3,604 5/11/2006 51.95 0.59 0.95 0.59 0.95 1,636 5/10/2006 54.44 0.45 0.50 0.45 0.45 5,379 5/9/2006 54.68 0.35 0.40 0.35 0.40 270 5/8/2006 54.95 0.65 0.65 0.40 0.40 207 5/5/2006 54.19 0.60 0.60 0.55 0.60 15 5/4/2006 53.27 1.10 1.10 0.85 0.90 115 5/3/2006 52.11 0.85 1.60 0.85 1.25 587 5/2/2006 54.15 0.70 0.95 0.70 0.85 258 5/1/2006 55.78 0.55 0.95 0.48 0.63 576 2002 炒垃圾：俄罗斯股市 2003炒垃圾： 美国otcbb 2004 炒垃圾： 越南以及东盟股市 2005炒垃圾 ： 巴西股市 2006 炒垃圾： 中东阿联酋石油富国股市 2007， 我看就得杀回中国 Not kidding, very serious! 那也不是， 主要是中国股市思维的障碍， 觉得打一枪会走 炒股是炒人性， 这个民族特性不一样， 中国人多疑， 老美直肠子一根茎。 从中国股市到美国需要很大的一个思维转换. (激烈直接 和 以柔克钢) 是啊，Short（Naked Sell）这东西是个无底洞，俺那次在AMR上面被咬了一口就很小心了。 回克 写道: 没有，我2002年底来， 2003 开户搞 开始行情好，赚到了不少却全陪到 RIMM 的short 上, really hurt me 引用: 12-May-06 07:41 ET In Play Neurocrine Biosci: Full approval on May 15 seems likely - Prudential (NBIX) 51.95 : Prudential says their meeting with NBIX Thursday did not change their positive view on the approvability of indiplon (for insomnia). Firm assigns an 85% probability to obtaining full approval from the FDA on May 15. With the DEA's Federal Register notice not appearing yet, the likelihood of a Fall 2006 launch is increasing, although they are not making any changes to their model now. From a valuation perspective, firm thinks the current stock price overly discounts the likelihood of full approval on May 15, and even if full approval does not come on May 15, they would expect a delay of no more than a few months. Maintains Overweight. 这个没注意,TMD亏大了 一些人 确切知道 飞机会炸， 因为他们就是炸弹。 他们通过一些动作让尽量多的人上飞机---把股价摇晃推上，加上尽量多的炸弹---put volume。 回客 看到了May 15 --news 定时炸弹。 小概率事件发生了。 钱转移帐户了 简单说来， 回客 经过 RIMM ， 对 炸弹客 装弹动作 做梦都忘不了。 好像 老兵对枪声的敏感和渴望。 估计 炸弹客在做的时候， 一手拉股票，一手下 买put 单， 让你看见便宜。 贪便宜吧！ 就炸你 能在马路 street 上看出骗局的， 有多少？在街上， 不凑 无谓的热闹 hot/sexy stocks，不拣可疑的便宜 。

作者: chinasmile1

Growth Option
独门绝技

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Candidates for swing trade or Opti...

[chinasmile1]

HK @ 2006
中国 top 公司观
Vision

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HK:
BIDU 涨到120 比 bwng 涨到30
容易的多得多.中国垂直型门户的老大中间尽管有波折,
可从IPO 到现在看, 个个都是3x （
老二或者竞争者太多的领域到不一定)
职场老大: 10->26 旅游老大: ctrp 20->50 太阳能老大: stp
20->45户外广告老大：fmcn 17-70
搜索老大 BIDU 会差莫 2008 we will see

作者: chinasmile1

Option Volume Related

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2. 最早是brief.com出的 option 消恮..

[chinasmile1]

Dave 谈方法

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股市千变万化，没有一成不变的规律。我只是说说最近我觉得可行的我在做的方法。

1。玩UPGRADE/DOWNGRADE。这个要是在以前我根本不CARE。以前DOWNGRADE后股票上，UPGRADE后放血的例子是比比皆是。你都不用去找来验证。但是近来形势有点不同。结合大势还是可以玩玩。我觉得这样做比较简单，容易操作。
1)。开盘前查DOWNGRADE/UPGRADE。
2)。开盘前查FUTURE死跌还是涨。
3)。如果是跌呢，开盘后就空DOWNGRADE，涨呢，就买UPGRADE，开盘前就放MKT ORDER，都不考虑LIMIT ORDER。

这个操盘很简单，很可行。下面说说要注意的细节。

1)。最好找三个字母的。因为三个字母的连续性比较好，如果是四个字母的，从盘前就开始涨跌了，你可能买在最高，空在最低。
2)。不要盘前行动。这跟四个字母的不一样，三个字母的盘前交易量不大，你可能吃亏。
3)。最好看看图，如果在很底部就不要空，在很高处也不要买。
4)。如果你空了后，大盘开盘继续跌，但是猛然反转向上而起趋势很明显，你最好盖了，反之亦然。
5)。和板块里面其它股票结合更好。比如某个板块绝大部分股票都跌了好久了，今天这个股票被DOWNGRADE了，大盘在盘前就跌了好多，这个股票又在高位。那空就很有把握了。比如近来的SIE。
6)。一定要查近期将来的EVENT。如果有EVENT的话，就不要过夜。比如MSTR，在ER前被UPGRADE两次。当然两天都涨了。后来怎么回事，大家都看得很清楚。这帮猪很坏。
7)。如果有把握可上OPTION。
。最好不要有别的事件一起。比如ER。因为事件多了，你很难把握得好。
9)。如果没把握，比如条件满足得似是而非的，就不要动手。错过了也无所谓。这个要切记。宁可不做，比亏了好。

2。板块互动的方法。
这个很简单。具体的举个例子就好了。近来我就经常看着QM/OIH做VLO。一般VLO比OIH强，有延迟。如果我看见OIH突破了，而VLO还在相对底部，那我就买VLO。反之也这样，比如上个星期五开盘，OIH大红，QM(原油)跌了那么多，而VLO还大绿，当然要空了。但是也有运气不好的时候。以前我做VLO不多得时候比较顺。今天我最多的时候有8000股VLO。可是VLO就不怎么动，虽然也没跌。如果是照以往，VLO今天该去70附近。

3。特定的股票的相互关系。
举例子，比如NGPS/ANTP。我一般看见ANTP动了后观察NGPS。找比较好的机会。今天我是在NGPS回到14。8X附近买了点。后来随着ANTP到了15。2X但是没守住。基本BREAK EVEN出。不过就现在ANTP的走势，我觉得NGPS上是迟早的事情，条件是不要ANTP几天后就跌回来了。上次NGPS就比ANTP晚了几天。

这儿举了几个例子。可能市场变化了就不合适了。比如这段时间对BREAK OUT操作就很不合适。这跟现在大盘的差劲有关。象以前的IIJI，CHINA，XING，你买了，关盘强的话加码，很多时候盘后又涨10%多了。第二天盘前接着涨。现在要再这样做，不知道死了好多次了。

作者: chinasmile1

HK @ 2006
中国 top 公司观
Vision

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HK:
BIDU 涨到120 殮.

[chinasmile1]

Dave 谈fa

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基本分析是自己知道自己在做什么，技术分析是想知道人家(大人物啦)在做什么，自己也想跟着做点什么；基本分析是智慧，技术分析是机灵；基本分析是投资，技术分析是投机；基本分析是自己花功夫赚钱，技术分析是花人家的功夫赚钱(当然花时间找和琢磨大人物跟也是功夫，就不扯了)；基本分析是主动，技术分析是被动；技术分析首先承认人家行自己不行，跟着能人走就成；技术分析始终没把自己当先行者，领导者 (从 发生了什么pattern 去推测未来 )
体会: 好像开车换lane 要观察配合其他人才安全, 别人快你也快; 打牌,要知道别人怎么想 打一长串后 结合自己 和 台面上的牌, 估计出对手的长串花色 数量, 什么时候要上手. 做具体分析,每张牌背后的逻辑 各人的已知 未知 对手的份量牌一定会保留,最后的攻击力量 瓦解对手的攻击力量

dave_liu 写道:
首先，喜欢EBAY，是从基本面来讲的(也有技术面的配合)。并不是说就什么也不看，一头扎进去。不在好的点位是不进去的。象这两天大盘这么差，EBAY又不在关键点位，要我去顶风作案浪EBAY，门都没有。
炒股还是要看看基本面，也不是什么都一个炒字。如果A和B都在支撑点位，大盘也看得过去。要是A的基本面比B好，那么A的支撑点就比B有效得多。如果B的基本面太差，它就很有可能向下突破。
喜欢一个股票，并不就等於MARRY它。如果技术面有明显的变化，立马就跑了，还多翻空。比如前两天的SNDK。我是出报表前买的，盈余报得也不错，开盘也涨了不少，但开盘后的走势确实有点熊，所以也就获利跑了。看它近来走得熊样，盈余后也没有纠正，那么在可见的一段时间内不会浪它了。
对一个股票的研究以至一些好的基本面结论，只是为了提供一些TRADING的基础(你总不能抓阄选股吧)，并不是BUY&HOLD。象YANKEE，JAMES，YAHOO，长短(排名不分先后 )都是一等高手，想要套住他们，DIE HARD，很难。他们见风使舵，比谁都跑得快。

YAHOO 写道:
是啊. TA 很多不好解决的问题还是要靠加入FA来搞定. 比如波浪理论,具体下个是
上升浪,下降浪,调整浪..., 哪可能单靠图形就能确定. 加入FA来判断就可能准确多了..
真正的TA高手肯定也是FA的高手.

[chinasmile1]

看一位高手SETH对FRPT的FA分析, 从2006/5 HOLD 到现在, 10倍. 学习!!!


ER news (link at http://www.forceprotection.net/news/...cle.html?id=99)
“Force Protection, Inc. Announces Operating Profitability, Positive Cash Flows for First Quarter
Publisher: Force Protection, Inc.
Date: 05/16/2006

LADSON, S.C.--Force Protection, Inc. (OTCBB:FRPT) achieved operating profitability and positive cash flows from operations during the three-month period ending March 31, 2006 on total sales of $34.8 million. The company recorded a gross profit for the quarter of $6.6 million, an operating profit of $114,000 and positive cash flows from operations of $7.2 million. These results reflect the dramatic increase in vehicle production from the same period in 2005.

"We are extremely pleased to have such a strong sales performance thus far in FY06," said Force Protection CEO Gordon McGilton. "This reflects the fact that our life-saving vehicles are being shipped to the troops in increasing numbers, and that awareness of the proven solution these vehicles provide to the problem of IEDs is also increasing."

Force Protection's net cash flow from operations in the first quarter was recorded at $7.2 million, compared with a loss from operations of $5.4 million in the first quarter of 2005. The company realized an overall net loss for the three-month period ended March 31, 2006 of $665,633, resulting from interest expenses incurred during the quarter.

"To achieve operating profitability is a significant milestone for Force Protection," said McGilton. "We are now seeing the benefit of the hard work we put in last year to develop and execute our production plan. We look forward to continuing this strong performance during 2006 as we establish greater production efficiencies and optimize our internal business processes."

Force Protection expects the number of its Cougar troop transport and Buffalo route clearance vehicles in Iraq and Afghanistan to more than double by July 2006. There are currently more than 100 vehicles deployed in the war in Iraq.”

10Q Results (For a shortcut of the latest 10Q, check http://biz.yahoo.com/e/060515/frpt.ob10-q.html)


“…

Revenue: Revenue for the three month period ended March 31, 2006 was $34,802,585 representing an increase of 495% compared to the same period in 2005. The increase during this period was due to the increased level of vehicle production we have achieved compared with last year, which is primarily the result of the JERRV contract, awarded in May 2005. Our revenue is derived from the sale of our Buffalo and Cougar vehicles and the sale of spare parts and other support services, however we do not record any income until our products are formally accepted by our customers The revenue reported during this three month period thus includes amounts we carried on our balance sheet during prior reporting periods as deferred revenue pending acceptance of the final products by the U.S. Army and the U.S. Marines. During the three month period ended March 31, 2006, we received approximately $33,000,000 from vehicle sales and $1,800,000 from the sale of spare parts and other support services. The revenue from the sale of spare parts has continuedd to increase over past quarters, driven by the increasing number of our vehicles delivered and deployed to areas of operations. We intend to continue to develop this spare parts business as an increasingly important part of our revenue base.

Cost of Sales: Cost of sales for the three month period ended March 31, 2006 was $28,164,816 representing an increase of $21,769,497 compared to the same period in 2005. The increase during this period was due to the increased level of vehicle production, and the corresponding increased cost of direct and indirect labor and material associated with our manufacturing activities. The cost of sales for the three month period ended March 31, 2006 was 81% of gross revenues for such three month period representing a 19% gross profit for this period, compared with cost of sales of 110% of gross revenues for the same period in 2005. This improvement in our gross profit is the result in part of increasing efficiency of our manufacturing operations. As we continue to expand our production capacity, we expect to achieve increased cost efficiency from volume purchasing, improvements in our manufacturing processes and the allocation of indirect costs across a broader production base, resulting in a projected decrease in the cost of sales as a percentage of gross revenue.

General and Administrative Expenses: General and Administrative expenses for the three month period ended March 31, 2006 were $6,523,128 representing an increase of $3,320,829 compared to the same period in 2005. The G&A expenses for the period ended March 31, 2006 included $663,590 in research and development expense. We expect our General and Administrative expenses to increase over time as we continue to expand our production capacity to meet increasing sales demand, however we expect the percentage of our G&A expenses in relation to gross revenues to decrease as we achieve greater efficiencies in our operations. Thus, for example, during the three month period ended March 31, 2006, our General and Administrative expense was 19% of our gross revenue as compared with 54% for the same period in 2005.

Net Gain/(Loss): Net Loss for the three month period ended March 31, 2006 was $665,633 representing an improvement over the net loss of $3,982,910 incurred during the same period in 2005. The improved performance is due primarily to higher production volumes and improved operating cost efficiencies.

Backlog: On April 23, 2004 we announced a contract award to deliver Cougar Hardened Engineer Vehicles, or HEV, to the U. S. Marine Corps, of which fourteen were initially funded under the contract. On March 8, 2005 the U.S. Marine Corps exercised its option to increase the number of HEV vehicles by fourteen, for a total of twenty-eight vehicles. As of March 31, 2006 we delivered a total of twenty-seven HEV vehicles, and have a remaining backlog of one Cougar HEV vehicle to be delivered under this contract, with a value of approximately $400,000. On May 17, 2004 we announced the award of a contract to deliver twenty-one Buffalo vehicles to the U.S. Army and in October 2004 we were awarded a separate contract by the U.S. Army for an additional fifteen Buffalo vehicles. Initial deliveries under these two Buffalo contracts began during 2004 and 2005, and as of March 31, 2006 we have delivered all thirty-six Buffalo vehicles, leaving no backlog under these two contracts with the U.S. Army. During the second quarter of 2005 we announced the award of a new contract by the U.S. Marine Corps for delivery of one hundred twenty-two Cougar Joint EOD Rapid Response Vehicles ("JERRV") to be delivered during 2005 and 2006, with a total value (with associated spares parts and training) of $90,000,000. As of March 31, 2006, we have delivered 61 JERRV vehicles and have a remaining backlog of 61 vehicles under the JERRV contract with an approximate value of $45,000,000, including associated spares and support. During the three month period ended December 31, 2005, we also announced a new order from the U.S. Marine Corps. for the purchase of four Buffalo vehicles (with associated spares, service and training) for a total contract price of $3,852,026.00. We delivered all four of these Buffalo vehicles under such contract during 2005.

On February 3, 2006 we announced the award of a Letter Contract from the U.S. Army for the delivery of 19 Buffalo Vehicles with an option for an additional 27 vehicles. The Army subsequently reduced the number of the additional vehicles from 27 to 22, for a total of 41. The Letter Contract is subject to definitization of terms. Additionally, on March 2, 2006 we announced the award of a contract with the U. S. Army, whereby we agree to provide the Army with authorized stock list supplies to service its Buffalo route clearance vehicle for the sum of up to $5 million.

Future Results: During the remainder of calendar year 2006 we expect to have incurred the majority of our presently anticipated infra-structure expansion costs and to achieve a substantially increased level of vehicle production capacity, resulting in increased revenues and profitability for such upcoming period. Set out below is a table showing actual and projected deliveries of our vehicles during 2004, 2005 and 2006 based on our internal estimates although our actual results may vary depending upon parts and material availability, actual production schedules, production efficiencies and other contingencies discussed in this report.

Vehicle Deliveries 2004, 2005 & 2006 Actual Projected 2004 Q1-2005 Q2-2005 Q3-2005 Q4-2005 Q1-2006 Q2-2006 Q3-2006 Q4-2006Buffalo 9 2 22 3 4 1 12 12 12Cougar HEV 5 8 2 8 4 0 0 0 0Cougar JERRV 0 0 0 2 16 43 62 60 60Total 14 10 24 13 24 44 74 72 72

…

LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

Current Liquidity: For the three month period ended March 31, 2006, we had a starting cash balance of $1,217,509 and an ending cash balance of $6,146,738 representing a net increase in our cash position for such period of $4,929,229. During this period we incurred positive cash flows from operations of $7,198,742 and used $1,627,553

in connection with our financing activities, including paying $1,250,000 of the principal amount due under our short term debt.

Future Liquidity: During the three month period ended March 31, 2006 we experienced positive cash flows from operations of $7,118,898 and were able to retire a portion of our short term debt. During this period, we continued to manage our accounts payable, and continued to factor our U.S. Government receivables under the Purchase and Sale Agreement with GC Financial Services, Inc. which allows us to receive payment within 24-48 hours of vehicle deliveries and reduces the impact of the government contract payment cycle on our short term liquidity. During the remainder of 2006 we expect the infra-structure expenses we have incurred in connection with our production ramp-up will begin to level off or decline and that we will continue to experience increased levels of positive cash flows from operations as we increase the volume of vehicle production. Such positive cash flows will allow us to pay down all or a portion of our short term debt and reduce the level of our accounts payable. In addition, we are also undertaking to secure long-term, asset-based debt financing to provide liquidity to support our continued development and growth.

Uncertainties:The amount of working capital that we will require depends on several factors, including without limitation, the extent and timing of sales of our products, future inventory costs, the timing and costs associated with the expansion of our manufacturing, development, engineering and customer support capabilities, the timing and cost of our product development and enhancement activities and our operating results. The realization of a major portion of the assets shown on our balance sheet is dependent upon the success of such future operations. During 2006 we expect to be able to generate cash flows from operations sufficient to satisfy our cash requirements, but if we are unable to do so, we may need to seek alternative sources of cash. Potential sources of such cash could include senior debt facilities, new lines of credit, or additional sales of our securities. If we raise funds through the sale of securities, the common stock currently outstanding could be diluted. There is a risk that such additional financing may not be available, or may not be available on acceptable terms, and the inability to obtain additional financing or generate sufficient cash from operations could require us to reduce or eliminate expenditures for capital equipment, research and development, production, or marketing of our products, or otherwise curtail or discontinue our operations, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

…”

3. Historical Results

See attached independent research report.

Summary:

FRPT.OB has shown us the potential to become overall profitable. Given its huge backlog, it predicts this fiscal year it’d deliver 258 vehicles. Suppose each one rakes in $400k, this is a potential of $103 mln for the year 2006. With the same gross margin 19% in the 1st quarter (if we ignore economy of scale), FRPT.OB would achieve a gross profit $19.60 mln. As a matter of fact, after the 10Q report, FRBT.OB has been signing some substantial contracts that verify its own prediction. For more details, please read a full version 10Q and its latest news stories.

As a result, I regard FRPT.OB as a mid-term investment candidate.
Main Downside Risk:
1. It's up to two major customers: US Army and US Marine Corps for contracts;
2. It's an OB stock, less transparent and more risky.

[chinasmile1]

ZT:
简历：段永平,1961年3月10日出生于江西南昌，经济学博士，MBA在读，现任步步高电子有限公司总经理。1978年，段永平从浙江大学无线电系毕业后分配到北京电子管厂，后考取中国人民大学经济系的研究生。1989年3月，到中山市怡华集团下属的一间亏损200万元的小厂当厂长，生产家用电视游戏机。三年之后，这间小厂产值已达10亿元，并正式命名为中山霸王电子工业公司。1994年，段永平向集团公司提出对小霸王进行股份制改造，但没被通过，1995年9月18日，他到东莞成立了步步高电子有限公司。对他的选择当时很多人并不看好，但命运之神似乎对他特别眷顾，他跳槽到公司很快使“步步高”步步登高，如今更成为中国无绳电话、VCD等行业中数一数二的名牌。段永平一度成为新闻人物、媒体的焦点。尽管他刚过而立之年,却已经捧红了小霸王和步步高两个品牌，这在中国企业界使十分罕见的。由此可见，段永平是才能卓著的职业经理人才。

美国炒股大赚：简单不等于容易
　　2001年，段永平和妻子一起移居美国。从那时起，他的投资生涯才真正揭幕。段永平坦言，过去五年他在美国炒股赚到的钱，比此前他在国内做十多年企业赚的钱还要多得多。“可以说，我大部分的财产都是在美国赚的。” 　　段永平最早的投资是搜狐、新浪、网易等中国IT概念股。随后它们的股价一路飙升，段永平的身家也随之水涨船高，他2003年以10亿元财富，在胡润《中国百富榜》中排名第83位。 　2001年底，他以1美元左右的价格买进网易股票，2003年10月网易的股价已飙升到70美元，段永平的股票市值在一年多时间里就翻了50倍。 　　四五年前投资的搜狐、新浪、网易等公司股票，段永平现在仍然大部分持有。最新的年报显示段永平通过他个人以及旗下Enlight基金会还持有九城12.06%的股份。他持有的网易股票一度还超过5%，为了不引起外界过度关注，后来才卖掉一部分股票，降到5%以下。 　　这次，他花巨资拍得与“老师”共进午餐的机会，段永平表示，他想当面向巴菲特请教一些困扰他多年的投资问题。“我对他过去投资经历的一些细节，也很感兴趣。” 　　尽管是个“巴迷”，但段永平认为，读了几本巴菲特的书并不重要，看懂一本就已经很好。实际上，巴菲特自己并没有写过书，他只写过一封给股东的信。“读懂了巴氏理论，要融进自己的血液里，还需长时间的实践操作。” 　　“投资其实很简单，但简单不等于容易。”段永平说，“买一只股票，就是买一个企业的现在与未来。你必须看懂企业，看中好的企业，等它价值被低估时买入。” 　　段永平认为，做企业十多年的经历帮助了他的投资。“我是厚积薄发，没有做企业这么多年的基础，很难看出企业好与坏。” 　　段永平目前只在国内买了一只股票——万科，“我持有的股票还不到万科总股本的1%”。 　　1989年，28岁的段永平在中国人民大学获得计量经济学硕士学位后，南下广东。次年在中山日华电子厂（小霸王的前身）任厂长，五年内他将这家亏损200万元的小厂做到10亿的年产值。1995年，他另立门户，在东莞创立步步高电子有限公司，任董事长兼总经理。经过十年的发展，步步高现已在中国的DVD、无绳电话、复读机等领域跻身第一集团军。 　　段永平相信，欲速则不达。做企业就像开车一样，应该在一个可控的范围，以适当的速度平稳发展。说来也巧，这次段永平在网上竞拍巴菲特午餐约会时用的代号就是“fast is slow”（快就是慢）。
　　段永平: “我在美国买了一家做租车业务的公司，当时它的股价跌到了5美元，我花了半年时间去调查研究，发现这家公司股票每股净资产有50多美元。我算了一笔账，就算把净资产打5折，还有25美元，最后我们买了100多万股，这只股票最高到过100多美元。”
为什么把网易股票由0.8美元坚持到100美元 段永平认为，能够取得投资成功在于对巴菲特的理解，更在于坚持执行巴菲特的理念。“0.8美元买网易股票的不单是我一个人，但坚持持有到100美元的就不多,所以发现价值有时候要靠运气。”他特别提醒道：“投资不在乎失掉一个机会，而是千万不要抓错一个机会。”

“投机和投资的很大区别就是：你是在动用大笔钱还是小笔钱；其二，当股价下跌时，投机和投资的态度正好相反，投资者看到股价下跌，往往很开心，因为还有机会可以买到更便宜的东西，而投机者想的是这公司肯定是出什么事情了，赶紧走人。”段永平说：“真正的投资者是有内幕消息的。我说的内幕消息是指，我能看到你三年以后的情况，这是CEO都不一定能看到的。”

段永平说。“什么是投资？最基本的，买一只股票就是买一个公司，如果要买一个公司，你不了解它，如何买？当它的价格低于他的价值的时候，你才去买它，否则这就不叫投资，叫投机。”抱着这样的投资理念，段永平在网易股票跌到0.8美元的时候大量买入，而那个时候网易正面临一个较为严重的诉讼。“我认真研究了网易，发现它股价在0.8美元的时候，公司还有每股2块多的现金，当然面临一个官司，也可能被摘牌，这里面有些不确定性，这就需要多做一些咨询。就官司的问题，我咨询了一些法律界人士，问类似的官司最可能的结果是什么，得到的结论是，后果不会很严重，因为他们的错误不是特别离谱。很重要的是，这家公司在运营上没有大问题。”段永平说，“做足功课后，我基本上把我能动用的钱全部动用了，去买它的股票。”

有人认为，段永平敢大量买入网易的股票是在于他认识丁磊，在于同丁磊的关系。但段永平不以为然，“我认识的老板多了，如果我认识一个就买一个，那要买的东西就多了，最重要的是对企业花了足够的工夫，对公司、产品都有深刻了解。”

鸡蛋只放在一个篮子里 看到了网易的投资价值，段永平动用了他能动用的所有的资金。因此，有人说段永平和巴菲特一样大胆。但段永平却不这样认为。“说巴菲特大胆我不同意，当你在投资的对象价值大于价格时出手，这不叫大胆，而是理性。花5元钱去买10元的东西，能说是大胆吗？”段永平反问记者，他认为，很多人在这个时候缺乏的是理性，而不是胆量。段永平进一步解释道：“投资就是找到一个最好的公司，然后把你的钱投入进去。既然你认为最好，不把钱投到这样的公司里，而把钱投到不好的公司里，在逻辑上就是错乱的。”

因此，段永平认为“投机和投资很大区别就是：你是在动用大笔钱还是小笔钱；其二，当股价下跌时，投机和投资的态度正好相反，投资者看到股价下跌，往往很开心，因为还有机会可以买到更便宜的东西，而投机者想的是这公司肯定是出什么事情了，赶紧走人”。

“所以，我想问巴菲特一个问题，如果他买的股票一路买一路涨怎么办？”段永平说，如果买的股票下跌的话，还可以找到钱再去买，但后来它涨上去了，这样你就买不到更多了。他甚至认为投资的时候买到底部是一个很糟糕的事情。“你买到底部后，股价就会一路买一路涨，这样你就买不到最多的量。”真正的投资者，其实是希望，在允许的价值波动范围内，在股票一路下跌的时候一路跟着买进，也只有这样才能拿到更多更便宜的筹码。

如何发掘真正的内幕

由于中国资本市场发展时间较短，相关的法规、制度还不完善，有人认为，在中国要像段永平那样去发现一家好公司非常难。段永平认为，这两个市场在本质上没有什么不同，都是寻找一个企业的价值，只是形式上有所不同：美国这个证券市场成熟，有过很多经历，有过危机，包括整个工具都非常成熟，监管机制也是比较完善，中国市场毕竟才不到20年的历史，有很多不完善的东西都是自然的。

万科是段永平在中国市场上买过的一只股票，买万科股票还有一个小故事。“有朋友给我推荐了万科，我自己也发现这家公司不错。王石我很早就认识，我约他出来聊天，我对他说，你不用紧张，我不会问你这个季度业绩怎么样？我只跟你聊。”段永平说。“后来聊什么呢？聊公司治理，企业文化。因为基本面上的东西我都看过了，从这些信息来看，这家公司已经具有投资价值了，我的目的就是去感觉一下这个公司的管理者，确认我看到的这些东西都是真的，这是最重要的。你要去问未来业绩是问不出来的，关键是和他们聊，去感觉他们的做企业的理念，是不是想要做假账的人。”这些就是段永平认为最有用的“内幕消息”。段永平说：“真正的投资者是有内幕消息的。我说的内幕消息是指，我能看到你三年以后的情况，这是CEO都不一定能看到的，你说这够不够内幕？”
欲速则不达
在这次竞拍与巴菲特的午餐时，段永平用的竞购名字是fastslow，他解释这个名字的意思是欲速则不达。“做企业和做投资就相当于开车，其实是每天每时每分都在开车，所以一味地求快没有意义。我做企业这么多年，包括做投资，体会最深的一点就是，最重要的是要能驾驭。根据自身情况，以自己能驾驭的速度去发展，而不是盲目求快。”“处理事情只看一个月看一单生意，和看未来10年做出的结果是不一样的。当然，慢的意思不是让你停下来，是让你小心。”打造两个品牌，竞争做标王、和老虎打高尔夫球，竞标天价午餐，段永平表现出来的是一个企业家、投资家的进取心，但他又一直强调平常心。“好公司在哪里都少，普通投资者在美国也是80%左右亏钱。”段永平说，“平常心本身就包括进取心，没有进取心哪来的平常心，进取和平常不矛盾，进取不代表快，欲速则
不达。有些人说企业家就是要冒风险，我说我不喜欢冒风险，但不喜欢冒风险并不意味着我不冒风险，任何事情都有风险，前提是对风险有确认度。”
你最想问他的问题是什么？
段永平：我想很难说有最想问的问题，我自己觉得我对投资的理解已经非常深刻了。最重要的是跟他有一个接触的机会。当然，也有些这么多年积累的心得想要去请教。投资，除了理解之外还有心态的问题。比如说，有好的投资目标，却没有钱的时候，你是否要去融资，当你有钱的时候，却又没有合适的投资目标时，一般人可能会着急、会乱，这两方面的错误我都犯过。巴菲特在投资路上已经走了很多年，所以特别想听听他的心路历程。

现在主要还在考虑用什么方式做。要设立一个项目做一件事情非常难。有时，我有钱也不知道花在哪里；有时学校也不知道把钱花在哪里最好。所以，我就把我的权力交给别人，即以配比资金方式来管理。例如，别人为浙大捐了1块钱，然后从我们这个基金里配1块钱给他，以他的名义来捐，我们不出名。这是我从斯坦福大学学到的。

实业与投资是有很大差别的,你认为实业与投资之间有哪些共通点或者差异呢？

段永平：做事情就是要做对的事情,从做对的事情的角度来看，我认为这两者没有什么差异。首先你要确定你做的是一件对的事情,再就是做对一件事情还要看你的能力,但能力可以通过学习来提高。
你做事主要会坚持什么样的原则？
段永平：这个问题比较大，这些都需要你的能力与知识以及心态等。我做事情不求快,但关键是找到对的事情,把它坚持下去。我觉得巴菲特最重要的特点也在于此。我的原则就是，发现错，马上就改。比如，有的事情现在有钱赚，但本身是错的，那你就得马上改，如果不改，那你赚的越多最后损失也越大。


四五年前投资的搜狐、新浪、网易等公司股票，段永平现在仍然大部分持有。最新的年报显示段永平通过他个人以及旗下Enlight基金会还持有九城12.06%的股份。他持有的网易股票一度还超过5%，为了不引起外界过度关注，后来才卖掉一部分股票，降到5%以下。

2.他$0.8买NTES是看到网易当时有$2.3的CASH. 据说他现在还在HOLD NTES,没卖.
3.他是听了别人的建议买的UHAL,也做了些分析,包括到UHAL的分店去问能不能转让店铺,得到否定的回答觉得MANAGEMENT TEAM还不错.
4.他有一个TEAM帮他找投资对象,分析公司.
6.他现在有时会写写OPTION CONTRACT,据他讲他从不CLOSE POSITION,反正他有钱, EXERCISE了他就接着.

Then after he read some book on WEB, he tried to invest massively by buying stocks. Now most of the time he sell covered calls or naked puts.

From what he said yesterday, half of puts of NTES were written by him. And he was joking that to see so many people working for him (by buying his puts) was fun.

应该什么时候卖股票
I think he gave you the answer. Hold it as long as you can unless the company has changed.

His opinion is just a standard one of value investor's. As WEB said, if you are going to do value investment, you are going to do it in 5 min. Duan became a value investor right after he read the book.
Duan did very very massive research on his stocks as ruskin has noticed from Duan's talk. He hired lawyers, accountants, game players, etc. and most importantly by himself.
But you do not need those methods to get a rough idea. That is why you buy something worth $1 for 50c. And you do not need any of those methods to buy if the price plunges. And you do not need any of those methods to hold your shares. For UHAL, he bought all the way from $5 to $3 and he was so happy to see the price dropping that he could buy more. When the price was up to $7 again after ch11 declaration, he never bought a share again.

As Duan said, simple is not easy.

[XBPS2]

作者: chinasmile1

股市千变万化，没有一成不变的规律。我只是说说最近我觉得可行的我在做的方法。

1。玩UPGRADE/DOWNGRADE。这个要是在以前我根本不CARE。以前DOWNGRADE后股票上，UPGRADE后放血的例子是比比皆是。你都不用去找来验证。但是近来形势有点不同。结合大势还是可以玩玩。我觉得这样做比较简单，容易操作。
1)。开盘前查DOWNGRADE/UPGRADE。
2)。开盘前查FUTURE死跌还是涨。
3)。如果是跌呢，开盘后就空DOWNGRADE，涨呢，就买UPGRADE，开盘前就放MKT ORDER，都不考虑LIMIT ORDER。

这个操盘很简单，很可行。下面说说要注意的细节。

1)。最好找三个字母的。因为三个字母的连续性比较好，如果是四个字母的，从盘前就开始涨跌了，你可能买在最高，空在最低。
2)。不要盘前行动。这跟四个字母的不一样，三个字母的盘前交易量不大，你可能吃亏。
3)。最好看看图，如果在很底部就不要空，在很高处也不要买。
4)。如果你空了后，大盘开盘继续跌，但是猛然反转向上而起趋势很明显，你最好盖了，反之亦然。
5)。和板块里面其它股票结合更好。比如某个板块绝大部分股票都跌了好久了，今天这个股票被DOWNGRADE了，大盘在盘前就跌了好多，这个股票又在高位。那空就很有把握了。比如近来的SIE。
6)。一定要查近期将来的EVENT。如果有EVENT的话，就不要过夜。比如MSTR，在ER前被UPGRADE两次。当然两天都涨了。后来怎么回事，大家都看得很清楚。这帮猪很坏。
7)。如果有把握可上OPTION。
。最好不要有别的事件一起。比如ER。因为事件多了，你很难把握得好。
9)。如果没把握，比如条件满足得似是而非的，就不要动手。错过了也无所谓。这个要切记。宁可不做，比亏了好。

2。板块互动的方法。
这个很简单。具体的举个例子就好了。近来我就经常看着QM/OIH做VLO。一般VLO比OIH强，有延迟。如果我看见OIH突破了，而VLO还在相对底部，那我就买VLO。反之也这样，比如上个星期五开盘，OIH大红，QM(原油)跌了那么多，而VLO还大绿，当然要空了。但是也有运气不好的时候。以前我做VLO不多得时候比较顺。今天我最多的时候有8000股VLO。可是VLO就不怎么动，虽然也没跌。如果是照以往，VLO今天该去70附近。

3。特定的股票的相互关系。
举例子，比如NGPS/ANTP。我一般看见ANTP动了后观察NGPS。找比较好的机会。今天我是在NGPS回到14。8X附近买了点。后来随着ANTP到了15。2X但是没守住。基本BREAK EVEN出。不过就现在ANTP的走势，我觉得NGPS上是迟早的事情，条件是不要ANTP几天后就跌回来了。上次NGPS就比ANTP晚了几天。

这儿举了几个例子。可能市场变化了就不合适了。比如这段时间对BREAK OUT操作就很不合适。这跟现在大盘的差劲有关。象以前的IIJI，CHINA，XING，你买了，关盘强的话加码，很多时候盘后又涨10%多了。第二天盘前接着涨。现在要再这样做，不知道死了好多次了。

这个老早就看过了，当时傻，看了等于白看，现在再看才懂。

[上路新手]

请问这都是那里的post? thanks!

[chinasmile1]

存在电脑里的, 以前从很多不同网站看来的. 很多是以前的goofiz.com, 现在这个网已经不活跃了.

作者: 上路新手

请问这都是那里的post? thanks!